A second referendum - or a general election?

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

Croydon13013 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:32 pm

Yes, I agree with all that except that I think that crashing out will be so much worse than you suggest, or most people realise, that it simply will not happen. Govt Ministers are finally getting it into their thick heads. Contingency planning and preparation is finally helping them to understand just how bad it would be. An EXTRA £2billion being spent between now and Brexit Day just to prepare? And that will be only a tiny fraction of the eventual cost to the country.
I hope you are right, but May seems to be manoeuvring to get the Commons to choose between her deal or Nodexit, in the hope that everyone will be frightened into choosing her deal. I doubt that it will be that simple....

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

Bercow may hold the key.... :shock: :???: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46593750
Over the coming weeks we may find that a figure supposedly above the political fray becomes a highly significant force in the heart of that fray.
Step forward John Bercow, Speaker of the House of Commons, who has the ability to exercise considerable power over the nature of Brexit.

For months, senior parliamentarians have been telling the speaker he will eventually have to act on the grounds that there will be gridlock in the final phase of Brexit. A sure-fire way to ensure an immediate and decisive intervention is if it is clear that a majority of MPs want to challenge the government.

Interventions by the speaker would be of huge significance, because the government usually controls the business of the commons. But if he believes there is deadlock - and the government is standing in the way of parliament agreeing a consensus view - then it is understood he feels he would have no option but to act.

One idea floated yesterday by Liam Fox and Damian Hinds is the "indicative vote" - that the speaker could allow MPs to hold a series of votes on various options. The indicative votes would probably include: the Norway Plus option of remaining inside the EU's economic structures but outside its political structures; a "Canada plus" option of a more traditional free trade deal with the EU; no deal exit from the EU; and a further referendum.

At the moment all of these options would be rejected by MPs, with a further referendum probably attracting the highest support. That is because all of those options - including a further referendum - are currently opposed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. He will only countenance a further referendum, if Labour fails to secure a general election. Labour supporters of a further referendum are slowly realising that Corbyn holds a veto over their cherished goal. The Labour leader has the decisive say in determining whether the party will have succeeded or failed in triggering a general election because he is the key figure in calling a no confidence vote in the government. By failing to call a no confidence vote, Corbyn could say that the referendum stage of Labour's Brexit policy has not been triggered.

But Corbyn might find that Theresa May is not the only political leader who could find John Bercow can make life uncomfortable. The speaker could undermine Corbyn's "wait and see" on a referendum, by accepting a no confidence motion in the government tabled by other opposition parties. If the opposition parties lose that vote then the referendum stage of Labour's policy would be triggered.

Croydon13013
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 »

Tony.Williams wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:11 pm
Bercow may hold the key.... :shock: :???: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46593750
Corbyn is refusing to hold a vote of no confidence because he would lose it. There is no other reason. If any one group out of the DUP, Brexiteers or Tory Wets say they will support it then he will call it.

If someone else is able to call it then that is fine and Labour MPs will be whipped to support the motion.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... leaving-eu
Jeremy Corbyn has defiantly restated Labour’s policy of leading Britain out of the European Union with a refashioned Brexit deal, shrugging off intense pressure from Labour MPs and activists for the party to throw its weight behind a second referendum.

The Labour leader insisted that even if his party won a snap general election in the new year, he would seek to go to Brussels and try to secure a better deal – if possible, in time to allow Brexit to go ahead on 29 March.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

What I find intriguing is that recent events are highlighting the considerable power of the party leader. Now May has survived the internal vote of confidence, it seems that she can basically do what she likes, as long as it's not prevented by legislation. If her entire cabinet disagrees with her, she can just ignore them - even if they all resigned, she could just appoint others and carry on. I doubt that she would be at all impressed by the "men in grey suits". Corbyn is not as powerful as this, simply because he's not the PM, but it would seem to be hard to prevent him from doing as he pleases.

Croydon13013
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 »

chaggle wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:09 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... leaving-eu
Jeremy Corbyn has defiantly restated Labour’s policy of leading Britain out of the European Union with a refashioned Brexit deal, shrugging off intense pressure from Labour MPs and activists for the party to throw its weight behind a second referendum.

The Labour leader insisted that even if his party won a snap general election in the new year, he would seek to go to Brussels and try to secure a better deal – if possible, in time to allow Brexit to go ahead on 29 March.
https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/ ... m_Ghwpkc-E

"Within the first few paragraphs it becomes clear that what Corbyn actually said is very different from Brexit would go ahead even if Labour won snap election. (in fact he isn't quoted saying this anywhere in the article at all)."
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle »

...so I wonder why The Guardian spun it like that then.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle »

Here is the Guardian stirring up Labour again.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ing-brexit
Jeremy Corbyn is facing a storm of criticism from Labour activists and MPs after suggesting he would press ahead with Brexit if the party won a snap general election.

In a sign that he is losing backing among overwhelmingly pro-Remain Labour supporters, Corbyn was also accused of betraying the party membership by appearing reluctant to back the idea of supporting Remain in a second referendum.

The first signs of a serious internal revolt from party members on the left, who helped propel him to the leadership, came after Corbyn gave an interview to the Guardian in which he suggested he thought Brexit should go ahead and said EU state-aid rules would prevent a Labour government intervening to support UK industries
I wonder what their angle is...
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

The Observer has this on the front page, under the heading Corbyn faces furious Labour backlash over backing Brexit. An extract:
Asked about a second referendum in his Guardian interview, Corbyn suggested his preference was to fight for a better Brexit deal than Theresa May had achieved. "It would be a matter for the party to decide what the policy would be; but my proposal at this moment is that we go forward, trying to get a customs union with the EU in which we would be able to be proper trading partners," he said.
The article goes on to give the critical responses of Labour members to what Corbyn is stated to have said in his interview.

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

It looks as if next week might be more than usually "interesting" in political terms. Westminster's response to the pleas from business for certainty and the general population's wish that they would just get on with it (whatever "it" might be) is to get itself in ever-greater tangles and bitter divisions (and that's only within the parties, let alone between them). Anyone have a clue what is likely to happen? The basic options seem to be (just off the top):

1. Parliament passes the Maybill (accompanied by ceremonial porcine flypast)

2. The Maybill is taken outside and given a good thrashing. After which:

2a. The Maybot tweaks it a bit and tries again in three days (return to the top and start again).

2b. Corbin calls for a vote of no confidence, which fails (return to the top and start again).

2c. Corbin calls for a vote of no confidence, which succeeds (government falls, general election held, no overall majority - god only knows what happens next).

2d. As for 2c, except that Tories have a majority (return to the top and start again).

2e. As for 2c, except that Labour has a majority - all bets concerning Brexit are off.

Somewhere in all this lurk various MPs of all parties trying to find some way of achieving a second referendum, possibly with the assistance of the Speaker. If they succeed, this may end up giving a similar result to the last one (i.e. a narrow majority for something). Refer to god again...

There are other options, but at the moment my head is aching. :gh

chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle »

Said on Marr this morning - that of the three options that might appear on some sort of 2ref: Leave with no deal, leave on May's deal or don't leave - the latter of those would probably win but with less than 40% of the vote.

Whereas in the 2016 referendum, leave won by 52%.

This of course would be very poorly received by those who want to leave - and I can understand that.

Is there in reality any form of second referendum which would work? Somehow I doubt it.

Also, on the same program, an illustration of how no deal would not work and therefore is not a serious proposition - the example used was horse racing but that is one issue amongst literally thousands.

No horses from Europe (including most significantly Ireland) would be allowed into the UK. Apart, of course that we could allow them in - fine. But would Europe allow them back?

This would either mean a serious diminution of horse racing in the UK (which I for one couldn't give a toss about but apparently it's quite important) or, more likely, a deal would be done - one of literally thousands of micro-deals - in all of which the UK would likely be at a disadvantage.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Matt
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Matt »

What's the betting that May's plan B (C? D?) is to find a way to kick the can down the road again.Yeah but no but I need a extension my homework cos that nasty Mr Corbyn has been bullying me yeah and even turned my best friend Arlene against me for no reason and so you have to give me an extension and Govey said so and everything yeah.

Tony.Williams
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

chaggle wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:33 pm

Is there in reality any form of second referendum which would work? Somehow I doubt it.
Could be a 2 stage poll (on one ballot paper):

1. In or out? If "in" wins >50%, cancel Article 50.

2. If "out" wins, go on to stage 2: choose between Nodexit or Maybill (all papers counted, including those who voted "in").

That means that on the ballot paper, voters would first tick in or out, and then go on to tick Nodexit or Maybill.

That would ensure that in both stages, the winner got more than 50% of the total vote.

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams »

The more I learn about this issue, the more convinced I am becoming that every single option is completely unacceptable.

I'm not sure where that leaves me... :con

chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle »

Tony.Williams wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:59 pm
The more I learn about this issue, the more convinced I am becoming that every single option is completely unacceptable.

I'm not sure where that leaves me... :con
That is what I think. I can see no way out of this without big problems.

By the way Farage was just on Jeremy Vine.

He was one moment bemoaning the 'undemocratic, unelected Bureaucrats' in Brussels and the next saying that the Government should have taken up his offer to 'advise and guide' them through the Brexit process - as an 'undemocratic, unelected bureacrat' maybe?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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