"a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

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bindeweede
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"a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by bindeweede »

A not-very-cheerful scenario described by Jonathan Lis.
Johnson and Hunt, however, have established their own parallel bottom line: that we must leave without a deal rather than revoke Article 50. Johnson told the BBC on Monday that both Labour and the Conservatives would face “mortal retribution” if we did not leave on 31st October, deal or no-deal. On Tuesday he insisted that no-deal must be “do or die” (likely the latter). Meanwhile, over the weekend, Hunt—let’s remember, the more serious and credible candidate—discussed a factory near Kidderminster which relies on EU trade and would be “wiped out” by no-deal. Without pausing for breath or apparently thought, he then declared that “if that was the only way to deliver Brexit, then I’m afraid we have to do that, because that’s what people have voted for.” Ignore the fact that a majority of voters, who in 2016 were guaranteed increased prosperity and free trade, emphatically did not vote for their fellow citizens to lose their jobs. This is now our political reality, and this is our next prime minister’s starting point.

And so here we are. The EU will not renegotiate the deal. The prime minister will not request a new extension. We therefore revert to the control Brexit intended to take back: the sovereignty of parliament.
"We therefore face two potential blow-ups: a full constitutional breakdown in July, or a straightforward political crisis in September or October. They will trigger either an election or referendum or likely both. Beneath it all, the truth remains the same as it always has: a no-deal exit is the least likely option, and we are in for many more months or years of national chaos."

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/poli ... roportions

Tony.Williams
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Re: "a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by Tony.Williams »

Some random speculations: it has been pointed out that whoever wins the vote to become the next Tory leader will not necessarily become Prime Minister - before that can happen, Hunt or Johnson has to be able to win the support of a majority in the House, or he will suffer a vote of no confidence.

Even if it does not happen immediately, the prospect of a no-confidence motion succeeding will remain high, and becomes a probability if the country seems to be heading for a no-deal Brexit. Which presumably means a general election at some point. Which is likely to result in losses for Tories and Labour, and gains for Lib Dems and Brexit - in other words, four medium-sized parties rather than two big ones and scraps.

Logically, this should lead to a coalition government, but given the fact that the parties have been flying to the extremes under some kind of suicidal centrifugal force, that might be a long, painful time before any kind of stability emerges.

I wonder how long the country can carry on functioning without a Prime Minister?

Matt
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Re: "a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by Matt »

Tony.Williams wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:03 am
I wonder how long the country can carry on functioning without a Prime Minister?
Since 13 July 2016 and counting

Tony.Williams
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Re: "a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by Tony.Williams »

But we've had strong and stable governance all that time, haven't we?

:gmc

chaggle
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Re: "a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by chaggle »

The civil service can run things perfectly well.

The elected politicians should stick to setting policy.

The electorate should stick to electing politicians who determine policy so that the civil service can run things perfectly well.

On no account should the electorate determine policy directly. :ey
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: "a political crisis in July, or October, or both."

Post by Tony.Williams »

An interesting perspective on the Brexiters on Chris Grey's blog: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... -last.html
They got the outcome they wanted in the Referendum, and its implementation now is entirely a matter of domestic politics rather than anything that might happen in the European Parliament. But ever since the Referendum, the mood of the Brexiters has been sour, sullen and angry. Rather than celebrate their great victory and revel in the opportunities that ‘independence from Brussels’ would bring, they have been suspicious and hostile.

That framed the entire way the UK approached the negotiations, with resentment about the basic reality of there needing to be a financial settlement and paranoid imaginations that the EU were trying to ‘trap’ the UK into remaining. Moreover, throughout, there has been the drumbeat of fury that Brexit means no longer participating in the various projects and programmes of the EU. Often, as I’ve remarked before, they act as if Britain were being forced into leaving by the EU, rather than choosing to do so. Indeed, the ‘protest’ against the playing of the Anthem would make much more sense if that were the scenario than it does given that Brexit is happening.......

In this sense, the way the Brexit Party is behaving and will presumably continue to behave has a significance for the framing of British politics whatever happens with Brexit. Indeed, Farage has already virtually said as much. It has become the institutionalised vehicle for anger, an anger which is not simply economic (for all that economics may explain some of the leave vote) but cultural. The great mistake that some erstwhile remainer politicians are making – as May did, and perhaps Hunt is now – is to imagine that ‘delivering Brexit’ will assuage that anger or, even, that Brexit is what the Brexiters really want.

The Referendum was, at least in Cameron’s eyes, supposed to finally lance the boil of ‘the Europe question’. Instead, it released the poison into the entire body politic. So as we endure this “political nervous breakdown”, and as the economic damage deepens (£), there is not even the comfort of thinking that Brexit will purge us of its effects. We’d better make the most of the current doldrums, because the politics of anger are here to stay.

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