UK Election 12 Dec 2019

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chaggle
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UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by chaggle »

Just to underline the confused picture:

Went out last night  - three couples, all in our 60s, all ardent remainers

Couple 1 (currently have a Tory MP - Labour 2nd)

One will vote Labour (tactical vote) one undecided but will probably vote LibDem (that's what they believe to be right)

Couple 2 (currently have a Tory MP, LibDem 2nd)

Neither know which way they will vote - Libdem to stop the Tory or Tory to give a majority.

Couple 3 (currently have a LibDem MP, Tory 2nd)

Neither know which way they will vote - Libdem to stop the Tory or Tory to give a majority.

So - all against Brexit but four of them thinking about voting Tory to break the deadlock.

None of them considering voting tribally - party loyalty simply not a factor. 
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by Tony.Williams »

It's certainly going to be an interesting night.

On the face of it, the choice should be simple: only two people are in the race for PM, a lying buffoon or an unrepentant Marxist who's still living in the 1970s. The most likely results would be either an outright Tory win (in which case Brexit would be pushed through at all costs) or a minority Labour government propped up by the SNP, any surviving LibDems and various odds and sods (in which case a second referendum becomes possible - plus another one for Scotland).

One curious suggestion I have read is that if there is a Tory government, it would be better from the pro-EU viewpoint for the Tories to win by a large margin, as that would give the Clown more room to manoeuvre. If there is only a small margin, the ERG and the like would still be able to wield considerable influence, resulting in a harder Brexit. Conversely, if Labour are in office, their freedom to act would be greatly restricted by the minority parties.

I have to say that I am intrigued by the way the campaign has proceeded so far. Last summer, there were four parties all scoring around 20% in polls, and a well-hung parliament seemed very likely. However, since then the Brexit Party has lost its way and is close to vanishing, while the LibDems have also suffered a steady drain in popularity, leaving only two parties seriously involved - right wing Tory or left-wing Labour. Whatever happened to the middle ground which was supposed to be where elections were decided?

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bindeweede
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by bindeweede »

Off on a slight tangent, here is David Allen Green on what is NOT happening today.
The irony is that the Conservatives are promoting themselves today as a solution to the current political disarray, when it was the Conservatives getting their first majority since 1992 which is the direct cause of what is now going on around us.

One would think a sufficient number of voters would realise this and desert the party whose misuse of a majority led to this mess.

But, yet again, no.
https://davidallengreen.com/2019/12/thr ... ction-day/

Tony.Williams
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by Tony.Williams »

And just for the Brexiters who keep rabbiting on about how wonderful the WTO is: https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 00381.html
The WTO was established to resolve trade disputes. Any member country can turn to the body if it feels like it has been subjected to unfair competition. Two-thirds of all cases wind up at the appellate body, which has the last say and is therefore considered by many to be the most powerful court in the world. When the body ceases to function on Wednesday, the entire WTO system will collapse. Any country that loses a case in the first ruling can simply appeal to a body that will be powerless to do anything -- and then continue doing whatever it was doing before. The rules that govern global trade will effectively no longer apply.
They can thank Trump for this... :roll:

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bindeweede
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by bindeweede »

Exit poll predicting Conservative majority of 86. Much more than I was expecting.

chaggle
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by chaggle »

I was expecting a Tory majority - size is almost irrelevant TBH.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

chaggle
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by chaggle »

The result might not be what we wanted but at least we got there the right way this time.

Steven Novella:
Skepticism values method over any particular conclusion
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by Tony.Williams »

chaggle wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:45 am
The result might not be what we wanted but at least we got there the right way this time.

Steven Novella:
Skepticism values method over any particular conclusion
Which suggests that skepticism and political savvy require fundamentally incompatible mindsets.

chaggle
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by chaggle »

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:19 pm
chaggle wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:45 am
The result might not be what we wanted but at least we got there the right way this time.

Steven Novella:
Skepticism values method over any particular conclusion
Which suggests that skepticism and political savvy require fundamentally incompatible mindsets.
I've noticed previously that skeptics are not very good at politics.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: UK Election 12 Dec 2019

Post by Tony.Williams »

chaggle wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:41 pm

I've noticed previously that skeptics are not very good at politics.
Right. We have this bothersome concern over facts based on objective evidence, which political operators clearly regard as completely irrelevant. Furthermore, they are correct if the measure of success is winning elections.

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